000 AGXX40 KNHC 100801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH SAT THEN ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 00Z TAFB NWPS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN MOST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WAS OBSERVED BY A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS THAT INDICATED 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RELATED TO THE NORMAL EVENING TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ONSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND SE GULF...RELATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER TODAY AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN ALLOWING SE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE THU FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS FOLLOW TAFB NWPS SHOWING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. THIS SERVES AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MWW3 SHOWING SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU...AND THE EC WAVE MODEL SHOWING LESS THAN 8 FT FOR THE SAME TIME AND PLACE. CONSENSUS SHOWS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING FRI INTO SAT AS THE LOW PRES IN THE PACIFIC WEAKENS. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SW GULF...LIKELY RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER PACIFIC LOW...CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE AND RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SE FLOW THIS TIME OVER THE EASTERN GULF. OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AND UKMET FOR THE SAT/SUN PERIODS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING. THIS IS AT THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY OVER LOCAL EFFECTS. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W TODAY THROUGH FRI BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING TO THE NE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT BY EARLY THU. STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING THU AS WELL DUE TO THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N W OF 55W BY LATE THU AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS S IN THE WAKE OF PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W BY LATE SAT...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TRADES AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ALONG THE TROUGH. A RIDGE RUNS PARALLEL TO THE NW OF SURFACE TROUGH...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTE NW OF THE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA RELATED TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ASCAT DATA FROM MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS NOTE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OVER THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 4-5 FT IN A NE TO E SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS..3-4 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...EVENTUALLY ALONG ROUGHLY 27N/28N. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S OF 22N SOUTH OF THE RIDGE WHERE FRESH TRADES WILL SET UP BY LATE FRI. THE WINDS WILL PULSE SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT LATE FRI AND SAT DUE IN PART TO PASSING TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.