000 AGXX40 KNHC 091850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AS NOTED IN THE REPORTS FROM THE BUOYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING WHERE A LOCAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ROUTINELY AND ENHANCES NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT OVERALL. FORECAST CHANGES WILL START WED AS LOW PRES CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ...AS HINTED AT IN THE 1548 ASCAT PASS...WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND WED. ALL THIS IS HAPPENING AS THE ATLC RIDGE INTENSIFIES WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...REINFORCING A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SE FLOW STARTING WED NIGHT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU AND N CENTRAL GULF BY THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING STARTING LATE SAT AS THE LOW PRES IN THE PACIFIC WEAKENS... ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL BUT THE S CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEWLY RECEIVED ASCAT DATA IS INFERRING THAT E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. A PARTIAL WINDSAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SIMILAR WINDS. SIMILAR WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE STARTING TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND 1017 MB HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER E...THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EXTENDING FROM 04N57W TO 11N54W MOVING W AT 15 KT IS ENHANCING WINDS OFF THE COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF FRESH SE WINDS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 25-30 KT SE WINDS BY WED NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES WITH SEAS REACHING 8 TO 11 FT. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SUSTAINED SE 25 KT WINDS LATE WED...BUT DECREASING TO 20 KT THU...AND PULSING BACK UP TO 25 KT THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY LATE SAT ALLOWING WINDS TO START TO DIMINISH. MEANWHILE STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 8 TO 11 FT PERSISTING. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA HAD BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS WEAKENING AND MOVING NE...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ITS PLACE. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 04N57W 11N54W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT THU ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 15N BY FRI IN THE WAKE OF A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRI AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO 26N71W...WHILE AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N77W EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER IS TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT 27N74W. ASCAT DATA FROM MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS NOTE MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OVER THE BASIN. SEA STATE IS IN THE 4-5 FT IN A NE TO E SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS..3-4 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO S FLORIDA THROUGH WED. THE NE TO E SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THU ALLOWING FOR THE 4-5 FT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.