000 AGXX40 KNHC 090751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 351 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING WHERE A LOCAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ROUTINELY AND ENHANCES NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT OVERALL. THE CHANGE WILL START WED AS LOW PRES CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND WED. ALL THIS IS HAPPENING AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...REINFORCING A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SE FLOW STARTING WED NIGHT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU AND N CENTRAL GULF BY THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING STARTING LATE SAT AS THE LOW PRES IN THE PACIFIC WEAKENS...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL BUT THE S CENTRAL GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION AND DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF EAST WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE STARTING TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND 1017 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 55W IS ENHANCING WINDS OFF THE COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. THIS IS NOTED IN A 0130 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF FRESH SE WINDS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW 25 TO 30 KT SE WINDS BY LATE WED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES WITH SEAS REACHING 8 TO 11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY LATE SAT ALLOWING WINDS TO START TO DIMINISH. MEANWHILE STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 8 TO 11 FT PERSISTING. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA HAD BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS WEAKENING AND MOVING NE...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ITS PLACE. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT THU ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 15N BY FRI IN THE WAKE OF A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRI AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS... WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N77W. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1017 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NW OF SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 39N75W. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO S FLORIDA THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.