000 AGXX40 KNHC 081805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. THE CHANGE WILL COME BY MID WEEK WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN A BUILDING ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST... AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ALREADY ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 8.5N93W AND THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG SE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU INTO FRI. MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALSO ENHANCING WINDS AND SEAS THERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N79W ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EPAC. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS WITHIN AROUND 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND S OF 13N. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW THROUGH TONIGHT AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS ALREADY NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME CHIP OBSERVATIONS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THIS AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 KT SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS THIS INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS NEAR 7-8 FT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION TUE AND WED REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT...THEN MOVING W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO SOUTH- CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO S FLORIDA THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.