000 AGXX40 KNHC 080547 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 147 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH TUE...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OFF NW YUCATAN EACH EVENING WHERE A LOCAL TROUGH WILL FORM...DIMINISHING BY EARLY MORNING. THE CHANGE WILL COME BY MID WEEK WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A BUILDING ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG SE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU INTO FRI. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL FOLLOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE AND WED...ITSELF THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT INTO FRI. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG MAJOR WAVE MODELS AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE WAVE GROWTH BY FRI...WITH THE MWW3 SHOWING THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH...FETCH AND DURATION OF THE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW CONCENTRATED FROM HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH LATE TODAY...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND OVERTAKEN BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. A BUILDING ATLC RIDGE N OF THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA...IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO EXPAND FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC... TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 KT SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WED WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS THIS INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...OBSERVATIONS FROM VESSEL BATFR17 INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 12N...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER EAST BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WAVE PASSES WEST WITH SEAS NEAR 7-8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N67W TO A VERY WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA...WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N72W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO S FLORIDA THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED AND THU WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.