000 AGXX40 KNHC 071754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. BY MID WEEK...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON WED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THEN OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WED NIGHT...SPREADING NORTHWARD AND MAINLY E OF 90W/91W ON THU. MARINE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW CONCENTRATED BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA AND NEAR BUOY 42057 LOCATED NEAR 17N81W. NEW CELLS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH MON...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND OVERTAKEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A BUILDING ATLC RIDGE N OF THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO EXPAND FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC... TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 KT SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WED WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS THIS INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS ZONE AMZ011 THAT ALSO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 12N WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS NEAR 7-8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA...WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N78W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO S FLORIDA MON THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.