000 AGXX40 KNHC 061751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODEST WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL. BY MID WEEK...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FORECAST ZONES GMZ019 AND GMZ021 ON WED. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE N OF AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE...WITH AXIS ALONG 72W...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE. THE ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE...INCREASING WINDS FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUN WITH SEAS TO 8 FT AS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROPICAL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED FOLLOWED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUE WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD SW INTO THE SE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND THEN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO S FLORIDA TUE AND WED. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTH WATERS DURING THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.