000 AGXX40 KNHC 060758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES IN MOST AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. A SHIP OFF THE WEST COAST OF YUCATAN AND A NEARBY COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AHEAD OF TROUGH THAT FORMS EACH EVENING OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE LOOP CURRENT NEAR 24N90W...AND OVER THE FAR SE GULF WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHER ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS BASIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODEST WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL. BY MID WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD. MEANWHILE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOW A SURGE OF SE TO S WINDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WED. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FLOW...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A MORE CONSERVATIVE BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND MORE MODERATE ECMWF FOR WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE N OF AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AND ENTER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY MON. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD BY MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT AS A RESULT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED FOLLOWED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE WATERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTH WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.