000 AGXX40 KNHC 051804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 204 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1017 MB LOCATED NEAR 27N92W DOMINATES THE GULF REGION WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUILDING SEAS BRIEFLY TO AROUND 4 FT. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL DRIFT WESTWARD REACHING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF BY SUN THEN WEAKEN AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SAT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. ONCE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE N OF AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 64W/65W...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MON. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TO THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AS FAR N AS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI BY MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT AS A RESULT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N74W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 22N W OF 70W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH... A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE WATERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTH WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.