000 AGXX40 KNHC 050800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL FORM EACH NIGHT OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND AMPLIFYING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE FAR SE GULF AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INTO SAT. EXPECT LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 15 TO 20 KT OFF NW YUCATAN IN THE LATE EVENINGS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA...KEEPING THE SURFACE FEATURE IN PLACE AND ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE BREEZES WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATLC EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY MON. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TO THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AS FAR N AS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI BY MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT AS A RESULT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N74W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TCI. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE WATERS AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTH WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.