000 AGXX40 KNHC 041820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NW WATERS WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE NE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE NOTED PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THESE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM 22N85W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1009 MB IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 19N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING N OF 19N AND WEST OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN THROUGH MON. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS IS A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF THE FORECAST ZONE AMZ033 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS WHILE SHIP CALL SIGN DAJC MOVING NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS WAS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 23 KT FROM THE EAST. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH LATE SAT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON WITH CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE RIDGING SW TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING TIGHTER GRADIENT SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ALSO DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 28N75W BY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NE BY MON REACHING A POSITION NEAR 31N72W. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE WATERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTH WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.