000 AGXX40 KNHC 040754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT THU JUN 04 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AT 28.5N92W...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. BROAD WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NW CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY ...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE WINDS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS SEEN IN THE 0322 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED TO JUST E OF THE GULF OVER FLORIDA. THE DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 25N...WHILE EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NEWD ACROSS MEXICO AND TO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF PORTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS E OF 83W WHERE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BROAD TROUGH IS FOUND. THE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES PATTERN WITH LIGHT SEAS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS WITH A SLIGHT BUILD IN SEAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED AN EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER SAT. THE AXIS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NW CUBA SW TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW AT 20N85W...AND TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH PRES FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC IS RIDGING SW TO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY ...CMAN OBSERVATIONS...AND ALONG WITH AN ASCAT DATA FROM 0140 UTC LAST NIGHT DEPICT MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W- 77W WITH A PATCH OF FRESH E WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-76W. GENTLE E-SE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE NE WIND W OF THE TROUGH N OF 19N AS SEEN IN THE 0322 UTC ASCAT PASS. MODERATE E WINDS ARE OVER THE THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF ABOUT 15N PER THE 0140 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SAME PASS SHOWS GENTLE E-SE WINDS N OF 15N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE S OF 18N E OF 82W...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W-76W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT W OF THE TROUGH...AND IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE SEEN IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE FRESH E WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-76W ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI...BUT BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONE 33 THROUGH SUN. BY MON... THESE WINDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE W TO NEAR 75W...E TO NEAR 65W AND N TO 18N. THE 6-8 FT SEAS WITH THESE WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT MON ALSO INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE FRESH WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W. THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN THROUGH MON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W S OF 13N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN FRI THROUGH LATE SAT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON WITH CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE RIDGING SW TO THE TROPICAL N ALTC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING TIGHTER GRADIENT SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE FRESH E WINDS AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THU...EXCEPT INCORPORATED IN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF FROM SAT TO MON NIGHT. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH 00 UTC MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE N OF 27N W OF 70W SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BASIN NEAR 63W. STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB IS WELL NE OF THE AREA AT 34N43W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING WSW TO NEAR 68W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TO E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE TSTM CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INTENSITY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 26N AND BETWEEN 73W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE SEEN FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SWATH OF MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE BASIN WILL REACH NEAR 65W/66W TONIGHT...FROM NEAR 24N65W TO 19N68W BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA WILL INDUCE THIS FEATURE. THE 0144 UTC PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHERE PRESSURES ARE DECREASING SOME AS SEEN IN REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND BAHAMAS. EXPECT THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. NEW ROUNDS OF TSTM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE GENTLE E-SE WINDS CONTINUING WITH RATHER LOW SEA STATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO S FLORIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT BEFORE IT SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.