000 AGXX40 KNHC 031730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF AT 28N94W AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE MS DELTA. ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH 1-2 FT SEAS THROUGHOUT EXPECT 2-3 APPROACH TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE EACH EVENING. ISOLATED TS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND E- CENTRAL WATERS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS EVENING AS DRY UPPER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO SE CUBA WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROUGH AT 21N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING E INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND IS DENOTED IN THE CURRENT WEATHER GRIDS AND CONTINUED THROUGH 72 HOURS. USED MODEL BLENDING TO TONE DOWN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GFS A TAD RESULTING IN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT E WINDS...SEAS 6-8 FT...WITHIN 240 NM OF THE N COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA EACH NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 18N E OF 75W AND MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING E ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH TAPPING ABUNDANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARIBBEAN CONVECTION AND SPREADING IT NNE ACROSS THE ATLC W OF 68W UNDER AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 69-79W. THUS...WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SCT RW/ISOL TS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. FURTHER E IS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NNE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N61W WITH E-SE 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E OF ITS AXIS THROUGH THU. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO NE FL. A SMALL AREA OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. OTHERWISE E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE AND SE-S 5-10 KT FLOW OBSERVED WITHIN AND N OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E TONIGHT AND THU AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG 76W...AND THEN MEANDERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...AND IF SO...THEN SHIFT NE ALONG THE TROUGH. EXPECT THESE LOWS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY LIGHT WINDS WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THE MAIN THREAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.