000 AGXX40 KNHC 020751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 351 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AT 28N94W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO 25N96W...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS JUST INLAND THE NW GULF COAST FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A TROUGH IS ALSO JUST INLAND W CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY ...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE-E WINDS NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING NE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS OF 2-3 FT OVER THE FAR SE PART AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL MAITAIN RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE INCREASED LEVELS OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY SEEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF DUE TO THE UPPER SW FLOW PATTERN E OF A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF COMBINING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL HELP SET UP BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING THAT WILL STRETCH NEWD ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE FAR SE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI ADDING TO THE PRESENT INSTABILITY OVER THOSE WATERS. AS A RESULT...POCKETS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO REPLACE THE TROUGHINESS ON SAT...BUT WEAK TROUGHINESS MAY STILL LINGER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THAT TIME AS HINTED IN THE MODELS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG 84W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO JUST NW OF HAITI. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY ...CMAN OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM 0242 UTC DEPICT MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W WITH A PATCH OF FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-75W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SHOW MODERATE NE-E WINDS OVER JUST ABOUT THAT ENTIRE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE S OF 18N E OF 82W...EXCEPT FOR A HIGHER SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 68W-80W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT W OF 82W...AND IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE 6-8 FT SEAS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5-6 FT AS THE CULPRIT NE SWELLS HAVE DISSIPATED. AS EVIDENCED IN THE 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA S OF 14N. THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE AREA OF FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-75W IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN BUT MOSTLY OVER ZONE 33 THU THROUGH SAT WHERE THE GRADIENT DUE TO ATLC HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STAYS TIGHT. THE 7-9 FT SEAS UNDER THE FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PEAK TO 10 FT THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND TO 6-8 FT WED THROUGH SAT...BUT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW PART OF ZONE 33. SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER VAPOR SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMBINATION OF A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ADDITIONAL ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HAS SET UP THE PRESENT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH THAT SETS UP THERE LATER TODAY...AND STRETCHES NEWD ACROSS NW CUBA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THU...EXCEPT ADDED A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF TO THE BLEND FOR WESTERN HALF OF BASIN FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS ALONG WITH THE 00 UTC MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BAHAMAS N OF 27N W OF 70W FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT PERIODS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N68W SW TO NW HAITI. THE PRELIMINARY 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AS ALSO REVEALED IN THE 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF 72W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS MOTION THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE GENTLE E-SE WINDS CONTINUING WITH RATHER LOW SEA STATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE E WINDS WILL AT TIMES MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE ISSUE WILL BE JUST MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL EXTEND INTO THE FAR SW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AND IF A LOW PRES FEATURE EVOLVES FROM IT AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUCH A LOW FEATURE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME...RIGHT NOW INDICATIONS ARE THAT IF IT FORMS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT HIGH SPEEDS. THE SAME WITH INDUCED SEA STATE. THE GFS MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH A LOW FEATURE FORMING NEAR THE BAHAMAS HAS TONED DOWN THIS SCENARIO SUBSTANTIALLY OVER AS NOTED IN ITS OUTPUT OVER RECENT RUNS. THE MAIN THING WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO SAT...BUT SHIFTING NEWD AT THAT TIME. WILL UPDATE THE NDFD TAFB GRIDS ACCORDINGLY PER UPDATED GUIDANCE FROM THE MODELS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.