000 AGXX40 KNHC 010731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT MON JUN 01 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT ADDED SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE 12 ECMWF FROM WED THROUGH FRI NIGHT FOR SE PORTION. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND 00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SE PART THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AT 28N94W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO 25N96W...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS JUST INLAND THE NW GULF COAST FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A TROUGH IS ALSO JUST INLAND W CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY ...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE E WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS SEEN IN THE 0246 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS OF 2-3 FT SW OF A LINE FROM 26N97W TO 21N90W. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE ONLY UPCOMING CHANGES MAY BE SEEN IN THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WHEN MODELS HINT OF A TROUGH FEATURE THAT LIFTS NNE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO OVER THE FAR SE GULF NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING ON WED AND THROUGH FRI. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE...AND WHETHER IT HAVE A LOW PRES SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IT? THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED DOWN ON SPINNING UP A LOW NEAR THE NW COAST OF CUBA...AND INSTEAD DOES NOT SHOW THIS UNTIL FRI BETWEEN SE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. STILL THINK THE BEST SOLN FOR THE TIME PERIOD BEGINNING WED TROUGH FRI WILL BE DEPICTING THIS FEATURE AS A TROUGH... NORTHERN EXTENSION OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...THAT LIFTS NE OVER NW CUBA...AND THE FAR SE GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT BEEN TOO FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SPIN OF A LOW AT THAT TIME. IN ANY EVENT...AMPLE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ADDING TO WHAT IS ALREADY IS PRESENTLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS FORECASTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE VALUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND AS UPPER WESTERLY FLOW ADDS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS WELL...ALL LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACTIVITY FOR MAINLY THE S CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST ...EXCEPT ADDED A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE 12 ECMWF BEGINNING WED ONWARD FOR FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG 80W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA S TO NEAR 17N75W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY ...CMAN OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM 0242 UTC DEPICT MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-77W WITH A PATCH OF FRESH NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-75W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN... EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE S PART OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SHOW MODERATE NE-E WINDS OVER JUST ABOUT THAT ENTIRE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE S OF 18N E OF 82W...EXCEPT FOR A HIGHER SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 68W-80W ...AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT W OF 82W...AND IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE DUE TO A PERSISTENT NE TO E SWELL THERE. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO TIGHTEN UP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA AS EVIDENT IN THE 0242 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W...AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES NUDGING SSW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND N THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT. ON WED FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO S OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-72W...AND CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRI. CURRENTLY SEAS ARE 8-9 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS. THESE SEAS SHOULD PEAK TO 10 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI THE 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER VAPOR SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC. THE COMBINATION OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE HAS SET UP A VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR AMPLE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC. THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 84W BY TUE NIGHT WHERE IT SHOULD STALL AS A TROUGH FEATURE. THIS FEATURE...AS DESCRIBED UNDER GULF OF MEXICO...IS WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE WHAT LIFTS NE TOWARDS NW CUBA AND THE FAR SE GULF WED INTO THU...HOWEVER A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH LEADS TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN STARTING ON WED. FOR NOW...I WILL SHOW THE WAVE STALL AS A TROUGH N THE MANUAL GRAPHICS BEGINNING ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS ALONG WITH THE 00 UTC MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT FROM BAHAMAS AND WESTWARD FROM THERE INCORPORATED A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE 12 UTC ECMWF INTO BLEND THU AND FRI PERIODS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BAHAMAS AND WESTWARD FROM THERE THU AND FRI PERIODS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N73W S TO EASTERN CUBA. A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS AT 31N72.5W...WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AS ALSO REVEALED IN THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT TO THE SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUE NIGHT...THEN SLOW DOWN THROUGH THU. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE GENTLE E-SE WINDS CONTINUING WITH RATHER LOW SEA STATE EXCEPT FOR NE SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODERATE E WINDS WILL AT TIMES MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. MODELS STILL HINT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES ALONG IT MAY LIFT NE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ATLC WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI BRINGING AN INCREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THOSE WATERS. WILL UPDATE THE NDFD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AS FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. NOTE: THE 00 UTC ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT TIME THIS DISCUSSION WAS COMPOSED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.