000 AGXX40 KNHC 310744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 344 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT ADDED 00 ECMWF FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH DAY 5 NIGHT FOR SE PORTION. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SE PART TUE THROUGH WED. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE GULF JUST S OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST ALONG THE FLORIDA W COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E- SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE E WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND A SMALL SWATH OF MODERATE NE WINDS ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST FROM 20N TO 21N. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0306 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED THESE WINDS AS WELL. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT NE OF A LINE FROM 30N89W TO FLORIDA KEYS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD MAINTAINING LITTLE CHANGE WITH WINDS AND SEAS. IN THE LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING THAT SOME FORM OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED INTO THU. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE AS WHAT WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. IT NOW DEVELOPS A LOW JUST SE OF S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS EARLY THU VERSUS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW NEAR NW CUBA AND BRINGING IT N TOWARDS THE SE GULF AS WAS OBSERVED IN THE EARLIER RUNS. STILL THINK THE BEST SOLN FOR THE TIME PERIOD BEGINNING TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WILL BE THAT OF THE ECMWF FOR THE SE GULF AREA IN SHOWING A TROUGH FEATURE. THE UKMET AND NAVGEM TO SOME EXTENT ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN SOLNS. IN ANY EVENT...LOOKING AT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STREAM NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING TUE. WITH THIS PORTION OF THE GULF EXPECTED TO BE UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG SLY JET EXPECT ADDED INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES TO SET THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASE OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THAT PART OF THE GULF STARTING ON TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST ...EXCEPT ADDED 00 ECMWF FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED FOR FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE ...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 75W/76W S OF 19N MOVING W AT LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY ...CMAN OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0302 UTC DEPICT MODERATE NE WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-79W...AND ALSO S OF 14N BETWEEN 62W-72W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE 0122 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS SHOW MODERATE E WINDS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE S OF 18N E OF 81W...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF HIGHER SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-77W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF 81W AND IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...PEAK SEA HEIGHTS ARE DUE TO E SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 15N...AND LOWER SEAS OF 5-7 FT N OF 15N. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA THROUGH WED AS THE WAVE ADVANCES WESTWARD...AND ATLC HIGH HIGH PRES BUILDS SW TOWARDS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. THE TIGHTER GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. THE 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 5-6 FT TUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER VAPOR SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA. THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE HAS SET UP A VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ENE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MON NIGHT...AND SLOW DOWN. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE WHAT HELPS SET UP THE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES EVOLVING FROM IT WED...AND LIFTING NNE THROUGH THU AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO STILL INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR TIME BEING I WILL NOT SHOW A LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE NDFD GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. OR NEAR NW CUBA FOR WILL BE ADJUSTED AS FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH THE 00 UTC MWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31NN69W TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW AT 28.5N70W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 24N73W. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO ITS N AND NE...WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE E WINDS W OF THE TROUGH...AND GENTLE E-SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH...AND AS ALSO REVEALED IN THE 0124-0126 UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-7 FT N OF 30N E OF 74W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT TO THE SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO MON. THE STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE OF THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN MON. GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND RATHER LOW SEA STATE EXCEPT FOR NE SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE E WINDS WILL AT TIMES MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES ALONG IT MAY LIFT NE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION WED AND THU BRINGING AND INCREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THOSE WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.