000 AGXX40 KNHC 290745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST INTO THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MODERATE E WINDS S OF 26N...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE WATERS. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0346 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED THESE WINDS AS WELL. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS... 3-5 FT OVER THE NW WATERS...AND 2-3 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRI...THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT TO SET ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH IN SPEEDS AND SEAS TO LOWER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRECEDED BY VERY STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY NOW REACHING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS. A VERY MOIST SE FLOW CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD TROUGH N OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE BASING...3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY NE SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE W OF 57W...AND 5-7 FT E OF 57W. VERY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD N OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD TROUGH N OF THE FORECAST AREA DAMPENS OUT...AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW IN ITS WAKE. THIS GRADIENT BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LARGE FETCH OF E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY...AND TO 9 FT IN NE SWELLS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO 6-8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH THE 00 UTC MWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG IT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THIS AREA. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG A POSITION FROM 30N66W TO A 1015 MB LOW AT 26N67W AND TO 23N68W LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO ITS NW AND N...WHILE A WEAK PRES PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO ITS SE AND SW. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE WATERS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NE CORNER AS DEPICTED IN THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE SE WATERS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LATEST SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND ALTIMETER PASSES EXHIBIT SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS...5-7 FT IN EN SWELLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE E WINDS THERE. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ORIENTED NE TO SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS. THE STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NW AND NW WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRES PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE IT IS NOT PRESENTLY FOUND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS OVER THE AREA AND RATHER LOW SEA STATE EXCEPT FOR NE SWELLS SENDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.