000 AGXX40 KNHC 261834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING E-NE ACROSS NW GULF AND ENHANCING SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED OFF LA COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH SQUALL LINE STILL MOVING SE ATTM. MAIN VORT LOBE EXPECTING TO LIFT OUT TO NE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND LEAVE TROFFING NNW-SSE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EWD THU FOR ACTIVE WEATHER JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH THROUGH WED THEN SHIFTING INTO NE PORTIONS THU. OTHERWISE...RIDGE PREVAILS FROM W ATLC SW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN AND YIELDING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SELY RETURN FLOW. SQUALL LINE HAS PRODUCED N AND NE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE PER PLATFORM OBS THROUGH NOON. TYPICAL YUCATAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND WEAKEN...AND HAS PRODUCED WINDS TO ONLY 20 KT PAST FEW NIGHTS PER SCAT PASSES. SEAS WERE 5-6 FT THIS MORNING FROM NW YUCATAN REGION INTO S AND CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SEAS HAVE INCREASE TO AT LEAST 7 FT PER BUOY OBS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT-THU AS THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS ATLC SHIFTS EWD AND TO THE NE OF BROAD CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH...AND PRODUCE A MORE ELY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING...TO PRODUCE A LOCALIZED REGION OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT EACH NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MORNING DATA DEPICTED STRONG TRADES CONFINED TO S CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 13.5N WITH MODERATE E TO SE WINDS W HALF...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS E OF MONA PASSAGE DUE TO BROAD INVERTED TROFFING ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WHERE SEAS WERE 4-6 FT. WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE BROAD TROUGH TO THE NE DRIFTS WWD AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL FRESHEN THU NIGHT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS FRI AS THE TROUGH N OF THE AREA SLOWLY DAMPENS OUT...AND WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE SE CARIB FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH PREVAILS E OF THE FORECAST AREA... UNDERNEATH A DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW. LATEST DATA DEPICT A NEAR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 28.5N58W WITH TROF EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N61W...WHILE REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO THE SW ARE SHIFTING SW TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS...IN A BACKDOOR FRONTAL MODE...AND WILL CROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED TO YIELD SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WITH A 20 KT NE WIND SURGE BEHIND IT. CUT OFF LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING AND EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD TO AROUND 61-62W BY FRI...WHILE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROFFING SHIFTS W AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHARP TROF MOVING QUICKLY W IN TANDEM...REACHING NW BAHAMAS BY 72HRS. MEANWHILE WEAKER LLVL TROFFING TO REMAIN NEAR 60W AND MOVE SLOWLY NW THROUGH THE WEEK...AND WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN WEAK GRADIENT TO THE S AND SW...WHILE HIGH TO THE N PRODUCES STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF TROFFING WHERE E TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY TO 30 KT PREVAIL WED THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING FRI-SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.