000 AGXX40 KNHC 191816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF CONTINUED TO REPORT SOME PATCHY FOG AND MIST THIS MORNING AND ALSO INLAND OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRES IS IN THE NE GULF WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY SHIFTING TO THE W INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. ALSO...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH IF NOT LOCALLY STRONG NEAR THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THESE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED E-SE PULSES OF MAINLY 20-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND UNDER 4 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY 1-2 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ATLC RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 17N...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF 17N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL RETURN NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW PREVAILS ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WITH NE SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH N OF 15N AND FRESH TO STRONG S OF 15N BY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT S OF 15N FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/ OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE PORTION WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PORTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND TSTMS E OF 65W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 65W WITH ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH SHIFTING NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THE FRONT WILL SINK S REACHING 25N BY WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE...1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N74W AND THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. AN EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ZONE AMZ117 WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES AND ATTENDANT RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VERY SLOWLY SHIFTING E-SE THROUGH SAT WITH NEW HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT BY SUN. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS EXPECTED AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT N OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N SAT THROUGH SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO E-SE IN ITS WAKE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.