000 AGXX40 KNHC 190728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FOG ARE STILL NOTED OVER NW WATERS. A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL OF 1021 MB HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER THIS PATTERN... MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THESE E-SE PULSES OF MAINLY 20-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY AND WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5-6 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND UNDER 4 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY 1-2 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/ PANAMANIAM LOW PRES WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...WITH WIND DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT THEREAFTER. THEN...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATE ON FRI...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS BACK...WITH 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 17N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED N OF 17N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE WATERS GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 29N74W...EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS WHERE A NEW COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FORECAST REGION...NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT S REACHING A POSITION NEAR 27N72W TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THEN...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SE TO NEAR 26N69W BY WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NE WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT W-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND REACH FROM 31N75W TO N FLORIDA THU...THEN DISSIPATE FROM 31N72W TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.