000 AGXX40 KNHC 181711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 111 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY FOG FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER NW WATERS. APPROACHING CONVECTION INTRODUCED IN GRIDS ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL NW WATERS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN ONLY A 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 20-25 KT CONDITIONS BEGINNING AGAIN ON SAT EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. SE-S 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. THE 10-15 KT WINDS NOTED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE WATERS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR A SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT...AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE NE AND N-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS HINTS AT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MID-LATE WEEK WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF THE LOW. USED MODEL BLENDING AGAIN TO TONE DOWN THE GFS WITH A NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN MID-LATE WEEK. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...AND 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST ON TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY ON WED AND THU WITH ONLY A 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY ON FRI EVENING WITH 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WITHIN 180 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 17N AND MODERATE TRADES N OF 17N...WITH WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF STRONG TRADES DEVELOPING E OF 70W ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N55W TO 20N70W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N74W WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 28N73W TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 24N58W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE GA. THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE RIDGE AND S OF BERMUDA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 7-10 FT...WITH A 15-20 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT... SEAS 5-8 FT...EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PASS E OF 55W ON TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT SE REACHING NEAR 26N70W LATE TUE NIGHT AND NEAR 26N66W LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT A RIDGE FROM 27N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRI. BY THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.