000 AGXX40 KNHC 180725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LIGHT FOG ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF REGION AND EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF EACH EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE E-SE PULSES OF MAINLY 20-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO E OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY AND WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND UNDER 4 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...WITH WIND DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEN...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY LATE ON FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WITH 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 17N WHILE MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED N OF 17N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 20N65W TO 21N70W WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SE WATERS AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH TUE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT... CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 31N72W...EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE BLOWING S OF 27N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS S OF 22N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT S REACHING A POSITION NEAR 28N72W TONIGHT WHILE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THEN...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER S TO NEAR 26N70W BY TUE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NE WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT W-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND REACH FROM 31N75W TO N FLORIDA THU...THEN STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.