000 AGXX40 KNHC 120759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND THE NWPS FOR THE SEAS. THE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO WESTERN CUBA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS... FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENTS WILL BE FOR AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...IN A CYCLE THAT WILL REPEAT ITSELF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM A LOWER VALUE OF 1 FOOT IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 4 TO 5 FEET IN THE CENTRAL WATERS...TO 6 TO 8 FEET FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...WHEN THE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...UPDATED MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND THE NWPS FOR THE SEAS...PLUS MANUAL EDITS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW AND FORECAST ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OVERALL TREND OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FT OR HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE...AS IT HAS BEEN CONTINUING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 65W WESTWARD. THE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 FEET IN THE AREAS OF THE GALE-FORCE WINDS. 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY UNTIL EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED AND BARELY REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT THRESHOLD FOR EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND THEN RETURN FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 86W WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH ECMWF AND THE NWPS FOR THE SEAS. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE SPANS THE ZONES THAT ARE FROM 31N65W WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THE RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHES THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY WED. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY UNTIL LATE THU/EARLY FRI...WHEN IT WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MORE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.