000 AGXX40 KNHC 110758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH THE LATEST ECMWF PLUS NWPS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPAN THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO INTO WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL START IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THEN SPREAD SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...AND FINALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLE STARTED TODAY...AND IT WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL CONFINE THEMSELVES ONLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE ON TUESDAY AND LATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOR ONLY 6 HOURS OR SO ON EACH DAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM A COMPARATIVELY LOWER VALUE OF 1 FOOT IN THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 4 TO 5 FEET IN THE CENTRAL WATERS...TO 6 TO 7 FEET FROM 93W WESTWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SAME CYCLE WILL REPEAT ITSELF EARLY ON TUESDAY IN THE SAME AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...UPDATED MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH THE LATEST GFS AND THE LATEST NWPS...PLUS MANUAL EDITS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW AND FORECAST ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN AGAIN DURING MUCH OF DAY TWO ALSO. THE OVERALL TREND OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT OR HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE...AS IT HAS BEEN CONTINUING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 65W WESTWARD. THE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 FEET IN THE AREAS OF THE GALE-FORCE WINDS. THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY...TOMORROW ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...NOT SO MUCH IF AT ALL ON THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE AREA THAT IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...THAT INCLUDES THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE NWPS. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE SPANS THE ZONES THAT ARE FROM 31N65W WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THE RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHES THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AROUND NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE ZONES FROM WEDNESDAY UNTIL LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MORE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.