000 AGXX40 KNHC 101846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RIDGING CONTINUES NE TO SW ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY...EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH ALONG COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE TO W CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND CONTINUES TO INDUCE FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF WRN 2/3RDS OF BASIN. WINDS HAVE FLUCTUATED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THERE ATTM. THIS OCCURRING AS DEEP LAYERED LOW MOVES E ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND FLOW OPENING UP INTO IT AND HELPING TO FUEL SEVERE WX TODAY. THIS LOW TO SHIFT EWD NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TEXAS BY MON TO LIMIT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MODERATELY. THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT NEXT FEW DAYS...UNTIL WED...WHEN THIS FRONT BEGINS TO LAY DOWN MORE E TO W ALONG N GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AND HIGH PRES ACROSS PLAINS STATES BRIDGES OVER FRONT AND ACROSS BASIN TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WIND FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THU BECOMING MORE SE ENTIRE BASIN BY FRI. YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE AND SHIFT W-NW ACROSS SW PORTIONS EACH EVENING AND NIGHT AND WILL ENHANCE SEAS TO 5-7 FT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ON OCCASION. GFS ALSO INDICATING DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS CUBA ALLOWING FOR FRESH FLOW THROUGH W HALF OF STRAITS OF FL TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THU. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED THU AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES W GULF AND MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTAL ZONES LIGHT UP DURING DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE USED A STRONG BLEND OF NWPS WITH LATEST WW3 FOR SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS GALES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA LIKELY ENDED PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING BUT DID NOT LET GALE WARNING THERE EXPIRE UNTIL 15Z. BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OCCURRING ATTM KEEPING SEAS UP ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS OF BASIN...WITH BUOY 42058 CONTINUING TO FLUCTUATE 11-12 FT...AND EARLY MORNING PEAK OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA ESTIMATED AROUND 15 FT. STRONG NW ATLC HIGH BEGINNING TO SINK S INTO REGION AND WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SPREAD WWD INTO GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO AROUND 25 KT EACH NIGHT AND SEAS TO 7 FT POSSIBLY 8 FT. GALES EXPECTED ALSO EACH NIGHT OFF OF COLOMBIA...AND EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH 12Z MON AND TUE MORNINGS WITH PEAK SEAS AT LEAST 15 FT. ATLC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD WED AND ALLOW FOR PRES GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT GULF OF HONDURAS AND VERY BRIEF GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA BY THU AND FRI. NWPS OUTPUT STILL LOOKS SLIGHTLY HIGH AND HAVE NOT USED FOR LATEST PKG AS WW3 SEEM APPROPRIATE. SAL AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TROPICAL STORM WARNING ANA HAS MOVED INLAND...WITH A CONVERGENT TAIL EXTENDING OUT OF SE QUADRANT TO THE SW AND INTO COASTAL WATERS OF NE FL ATTM. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE PREVAILS...WITH NEW AND STRONGER HIGH DROPPING S FROM NW ATLC AND WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY E OF BERMUDA TUE. SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS W PORTIONS THEN SSW INTO WRN CARIB ALONG 80W ACTING TO ENHANCE ZONE OF LLVL MOISTURE MOVING WWD INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS ATTM...AND SQUALLS LOOK TO BE OCCURRING...AND RECENT SHIP OBS SHOWING WINDS 30-35 KT WITHIN THIS AREA. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES WITHIN TROUGH AXIS AND MORE STABLE AIR...BUT NOT BEFORE MARCHING THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SQUALLS. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA WITH SINKING HIGH TO FRESHEN TRADES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS STARTING TONIGHT...AND WELL AS SRN WATERS THROUGH THE STRAITS THROUGH TUE BEFORE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE OFF SE U.S. COAST LATE TUE NIGHT...AND HIGH IS NUDGED EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND WILL KEEP SEAS AOA 8 FT THROUGH MON BEFORE WINDWAVE BEGINS TO DOMINATE. COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF E COAST AND INTO W ATLC WED-WED NIGHT AND SINK S INTO NRN WATERS THU MORNING...REDUCING PRES GRADIENT THU AND FRI. FRONT TO SNAG ACROSS NE FL WHILE MOVING SE ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC...REACHING FROM 26N65W TO NEAR JAX BY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY SMALL NLY SWELL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.