000 AGXX40 KNHC 092306 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 706 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 UPDATED CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR GALE WARNING MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH THE LATEST GFS AND THE LATEST NWPS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR AT FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO INTO WESTERN CUBA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY UNTIL MONDAY SUNRISE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE PATTERN OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WILL HAPPEN AGAIN CYCLICALLY...EVERY DAY FROM LATE MON INTO TUE SUNRISE...UNTIL LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...AND AGING LATE THU. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL START...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...FROM A COMPARATIVELY LOWER VALUE OF 1 FOOT IN THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 3 FEET IN THE CENTRAL WATERS...TO 5 FEET IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS. EARLY SUN MORNING...A SMALL AREA OF 6 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE A SMALL AREA OF 8 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF TEXAS. THE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DISAPPEAR BY THE NOONTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. 6-7 FT SEA HEIGHTS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 92W WESTWARD. AREAS OF 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS DEVELOP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...STARTING LATE ON SUN AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON...UNTIL LATE ON THU...CYCLICALLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...UPDATED MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH THE LATEST GFS AND THE LATEST NWPS...PLUS MANUAL EDITS. THE LATEST AND RECENT ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE 1008 MB...1012 MB AND 1016 MB ISOBARS ALL BEING 180 NM IN SPACING WHICH SIGNIFIES WINDS OF GALE FORCE ALREADY OVER THAT PORTION OF THE SEA. IN ADDITION... SHIP WITH CALL SIGN "DNMRYD" NEAR 13.5N71.0W AT 18 UTC REPORTED E WINDS OF 39 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL GUIDANCE FROM THE 18 UTC GFS MODEL HAVE ISSUED THE GALE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF ZONE 031 AS OF 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH NE TO E WINDS OF 30-40 KT AND SEAS OF 10-15 FT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS MIM THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AGAIN LATE ON SUN NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MON MORNING ...THEN START UP AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS OF 20-30 KT FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE. THE SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 13 FT IN THE LARGER AREA OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 16 FEET IN THE GALE WARNING AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL WITH THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE NWPS. SUBTROPICAL STORM WARNING ANA REMAINS CUT OFF AND MOVING LITTLE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE WIND SURGE THAT IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND ANA HAS GENERATED A PULSE OF N TO NW SWELL... THAT NOW IS REACHING 27N. ANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...SLOWLY...IN THE AREA OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL GO DOWN INCREMENTALLY MORE AND MORE AS ANA CONTINUES ITS NORTHERLY MOVEMENT. ANA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND LATE ON SUNDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AS ANA MOVES INLAND. EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW BE ENHANCED...TO THE S OF 23N/24N FROM SUN UNTIL TUE...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE BANKS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...GALE WARNING TONIGHT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT/AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.