000 AGXX40 KNHC 081848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS SYMPATHETIC HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE AS PART OF RIDGING EXTENDING INTO BASIN FROM THE NE AND TO THE W OF ANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS IN THE GULF WATERS. A NORTHEAST- TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS S AND W PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE 3-6 FT...HIGHEST NW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW HALF BY SAT NIGHT AS ANA APPROACHES COAST AND HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SW AND TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT... WITH SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING 6-8 FT WITHIN 12-18 HRS. YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO DOMINATE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AND SHIFT WNW EACH NIGHT WITH ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS N AND NE OF TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS ATLC RIDGE IS WEAKENING AND NARROWING ALONG 27-28N TODAY AS BROAD LOW ACROSS N ATLC MOVES SE. THIS STILL ALLOWING WEAK RIDGE TO EXTEND WWD TO NW BAHAMAS AND PROMOTING STRONG TRADES ACROSS TYPICAL S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CARIB...WITH PEAK WINDS 25-30 KT S OF 13N AND BETWEEN 68W AND 75W...AND SEAS THERE 9-13 FT. HIGH ACROSS NW ATLC WILL SINK S INTO REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND ACT TO TIGHTEN RES GRADIENT WITH STRONG TRADES EXPANDING WWD TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND LONG ELY FETCH ALLOWING FOR BUILDING SEAS SW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS 5-8 FT IN MIXED NELY SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SUN AS HIGH DROPS INTO REGION FROM NW ATLC...AND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES 50W...WITH 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT TO PREVAIL S OF 18N THROUGH MON AND SEAS 7-9 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SUBTROPICAL STORM WARNING ANA REMAINS CUT OFF AND MOVING LITTLE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. RECENT RAPIDSCAT PASS DATA THAT HAVE COVERED ANA DID NOT ARRIVE FULLY. OVERNIGHT SCAT PASSES SHOWED WIND SURGE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY FROM NW SEMICIRCLE INTO E SEMICIRCLE NOW. THIS HAS GENERATED A PULSE OF N TO NW SWELL NOW REACHING ABOUT 27N AND 3 FT OR SO EXPECTED TO PASS BEHIND THE BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS AND THE BANKS. BUOY OBS SURROUNDING ANA THAT WW3 AND FORECAST FOR 12 FT SEA RADII A BIT HIGH AND HAVE BACKED OFF OF NWPS FORECASTS BY A FEW FT. ANA TO DRIFT NNW NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NC-SC BORDER SUN MORNING AND INLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH TO DROP FROM NW ATLC INTO REGIONAL WATERS E OF BERMUDA BY SUN NIGHT-MON AS ANA MOVES INLAND AND WILL ENHANCE ESE TRADES S OF 23-24N SUN-TUE FROM NE CARIB INTO THE BANKS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.