000 AGXX40 KNHC 071749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 149 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ...GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-3 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LATE EVENING TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MON WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 13 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST AIRCRAFT RECON FOUND THE LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS PRESENTLY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE S OF THE LOW. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE NW WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW HAS SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON GIVES THE SYSTEM A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WNW JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT MORNING WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BRING THE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE EXITING LOW PRES AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.