000 AGXX40 KNHC 070727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 327 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ...GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS...WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND 4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LATE EVENING TROUGHING OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 13 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND TAFB NWPS ELSEWHERE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N78W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY SPORADIC CONVECTION NOTED IN A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N74W...AND IN A BROAD ARC WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. NO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS YET BY THE NHC...BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT THE LOW WILL FORM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT AT HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MOST OF THE IMPACT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 75W THROUGH LATE FRI AS THE LOW PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS N THEN NNW TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL INCLUDE WINDS TO 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT DIMINISHING BY SAT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH. ELSEWHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXITING LOW PRES AREA...BUT WEAKEN BY SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE EFFECT WILL BE FRESH SE FLOW FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF THE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FUNNELING WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT WILL PULSE BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS/CAICOS. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT IS NOTED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.