000
AGXX40 KNHC 051900
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE 
TODAY BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND...TO THE NORTH OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER WINDS IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT 
WINDS. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST CONSISTS OF THE 20 TO 25 KNOT 
WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS 
THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA 
AREA RELEATED TO THE BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM 87W WESTWARD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND COMPARATIVELY LOWER 
SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN 
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. RESULTANT SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TAFB NWPS LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT 
AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 13 FT AS 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 
FT.
 
RAINSHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BEEN RELATED TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS-TO-
CENTRAL CUBA SURFACE TROUGH.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12 UTC GFS WITH A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF 
THE OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEN LOW CONFIDENCE FRI AND SAT.

RAINSHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BEEN RELATED TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS-TO-
CENTRAL CUBA SURFACE TROUGH.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO 
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND 
POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MODEL RUN AND TREND 
FROM 06Z TODAY SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF 
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL 
SHOWS THAT WINDS MAY REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. 
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.