000 AGXX40 KNHC 010802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING...PRESENTING A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL CLIP THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE GULF LATER TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD AS IT FOLLOWS THE FRONT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATE WEAK TROUGHING S OF THE AREA ON THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT STARTING SATURDAY...ESTABLISHING A STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUNDAY BUT OFFICAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS/UKMET SHOWING WIDER COVERAGE OF STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. THE GFS SHOWS THE STRONGER E FLOW IN THE SE GULF PERSISTING THROUGH LATE MON. GIVEN THE DURATION AND FETCH ALONG WITH THE ADDED INFLUENCES OF THE FLORIDA CURRENT...SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY...AS NOTED IN THE UKWAVE MODEL. ELSEWHERE MODERATE E FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE GENERALLY 15 KT N WINDS W OF THE FRONT FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT WINDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PERSIST WITH 4 TO 5 FT SEAS. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORMALLY ANCHORED WELL N OF THE BASIN IN THE ATLC HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE SE TO ALONG 20N. THIS HAS SHIFTED THE TIGHTER GRADIENT FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO OFF VENEZUELA. THE EXTENT OF THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA OFF THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY REACHING 8 TO 11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WEST OF 55W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...THEN AN EVEN BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL STALL THIS MORNING...THEN GET A REINFORCING PUSH OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY EMERGING OFF SE GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT LATER TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL SHIFT E BEFORE STALLING FROM 26N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY. A BUILDING RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTS...MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TCI MON INTO TUE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE INTO WED. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON GENERAL TIMING AND LOCATION...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF INDICATED GALE CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK N OF THE BAHAMAS AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTRODUCES THE LOW PRES...BUT FAVORS A BLEND WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.