000 AGXX40 KNHC 291858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN 50/50 GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 25N86W TO 22N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE BUOY ...CMAN AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS REPORT GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH A BUOY AND FEW SHIP REPORTS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT HIGHER SEAS OF 7-10 FT S OF 28N W OF 88W...WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER SEAS OF 10-11 FT S OF 27N W OF 91W. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE SEEN NE OF A LINE FROM MOBILE BAY SE TO LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THE 7-10 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT THU...AND TO 4-5 FT FRI...WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE BY THEN. SMOKE AND HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SE PART OF THE GULF...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF EARLY ON THU. THE HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. A WEAK TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION SUN THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 ECMWF AND 12 GFS WITH BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS N OF VENEZUELA AND FAR EASTERN COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE REGION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS AS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS DENSE AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS HAVE MIXED IN WITH IT. THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...THEN REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS THU AND STALL THERE BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP CLEAR THE SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC ZONES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT AS STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH SAT...THEN 00 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THEREAFTER. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE TAFB NWPS AND 12 UTC GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N65W WNW TO 28N73W AND TO A 1003 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO INLAND FLORIDA AT DAYTONA BEACH. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 5-6 FT SEAS FROM 27N- 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FROM NEAR 31N77W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA TONIGHT...FROM NEAR 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT...AND FROM NEAR 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT AND WEAKEN FROM 26N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SE WATERS ON SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER AND AROUND THE BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH E WINDS THERE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.