000 AGXX40 KNHC 241809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 209 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR LATER PART OF PERIOD. LATEST EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF OF MEXICO WERE TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL ALSO NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. NE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MON...THEN THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF SOLUTIONS LATE MON INTO TUE IN REGARDS TO PRESSURES N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...3-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA BY SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON AND WILL STALL ALONG 25N BY TUE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO WINDS SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.