000 AGXX40 KNHC 230524 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 124 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND NW FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT N-NE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUN AND MON EVENINGS... OTHERWISE 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENTS EXPECTED EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT AND STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON EACH NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. E-SE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SW REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N60W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA WITH A FEW TS. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL MOVE E AGAIN TODAY AND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W FRI. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. N SWELLS...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 62W. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N TODAY WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N75W WILL SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 26N71W TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NE TO 29N79W. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W- NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N57W TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON SAT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF PUERTO RICO ON SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON SUN. THE BIG CHANGE IS THE POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT ON FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON SAT EVENING. THE EXTENT OF THE 20-25 KT FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 27N ON SUN. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN. LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LAST FRONT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.