000 AGXX40 KNHC 151858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL PLUS A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF GFS LINGERING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE ATTM WITH S/W PERTURBATIONS IN A SERIES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A MEAN TROUGH THAT IS ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND N GULF. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AND THE PRECIPITATION STILL IS MOVING THROUGH THE SAME AREA RIGHT NOW. SOME PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THE LAST OF THESE S/W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND N CENTRAL COAST...INTO SE U.S. TONIGHT. DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH LINES AND CLUSTERS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS INTERRUPTING THE LLVL FLOW AND INDUCING SFC TROUGHS...WHICH ARE ALSO BEING FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THIS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED MODERATE ESE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND SE FLOW INTO SE LOUISIANA. RECENT OBS AND ALTIMETER PASSES SUGGEST SEAS 2-4 IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. THIS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING HIGHERS WINDS AND SEAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RECENT SYNOPTIC REASONING AS LLVL PATTERN TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW...WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND LINES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND N SECTION TO INTERRUPT THIS FLOW...WHILE YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL PULSING AND MOVEMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SW U.S. NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NEXT COLD FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE TEXAS COAST MON MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL PLUS A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF GFS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1030 MB HIGH ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL ATTM AND CONTINUES TO INDUCE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING 20 KT TRADES NOW CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TO S OF 15N. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALSO PRODUCING MODERATE FLOW ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE PER 1446Z RAPIDSCAT PASS. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...PER THE 1446 UTC SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. NO CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE OF REASONING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH PREFERRED AREAS PULSING TO 20-25 KT. PRES GRADIENT TO DIMINISH LATE THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK E OF 80W AND MODELS RESPOND BY CONFINING 20 KT TRADES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. THIS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SUFFICIENT RIDGING INTO GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN NOCTURNAL PULSING TO 25 KT EACH NIGHT...WITH WINDS GENERALLY VEERING MORE SE SAT THROUGH TUE. NO CHANGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHERE MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL N HALF AND FRESH S HALF. LOW LAT EARLY SEASON ELY WAVES MOVING WWD ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC AND S OF 10N ARE INFLUENCING CNVTN S HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AS WELL INCREASING WINDS WITH EACH PASSAGE. WW3 CONTINUES TO UNDERFORECAST ENE TRADEWIND SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS...AND GENERALLY RUNNING 1-2 FT LOW ACROSS THE TRADE WIND BELT E OF THE ISLANDS PER NUMEROUS ALTIMETER PASSES IN RECENT DAYS. SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE 7-9 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NLY SWELL FROM CENTRAL ATLC BOMB LATER THIS WEEK TO MOVE INTO N SECTIONS OF ATLC WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PEAK SUN- MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL PLUS A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF GFS LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE PART OF THE AREA FINALLY IS DISSIPATING UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SINKING TUTT. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL ATLC TO CAPE CANAVERAL. THE COMPARATIVELY FASTEST WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF HATTERAS THAT WILL BOMB OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC THU-FRI. STILL PREFER ECMWF DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND HAVE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SINKING A BIT FARTHER S ACROSS NE PORTIONS THU-FRI...AND LOW DEVELOPING OFF COASTS OF CAROLINAS FRI-SAT FARTHER S AND SW THAN GFS. NARROW ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF FRONT ACROSS NE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH BOMBING LOW MOVE INTO NE PORTIONS FRI NIGHT AND REACH NE CARIB ISLANDS SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN. ECWAVE IS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION SAT THROUGH SUN AND WILL INCORPORATE INTO FORECAST. PEAK N SWELL ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.