000 AGXX40 KNHC 150817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 417 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LINGERING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE ATTM WITH A SERIES OF S/W PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH BASE OF MEAN TROFFING ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND N GULF...AND HAVE TRIGGERED ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW HALF OF BASIN TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST OF THESE S/W EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND N CENTRAL COAST TODAY AND INTO SE U.S. TONIGHT. DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH LINES AND CLUSTERS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS INTERRUPTING THE LLVL FLOW AND INDUCING SFC TROUGHS...WHICH ARE ALSO BEING FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THIS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH ESE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND SE FLOW INTO SE LOUISIANA. RECENT OBS AND ALTIMETER PASSES SUGGEST SEAS 2-4 ACROSS THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE MAX TO 5 FT OFF YUCATAN DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH. THIS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING HIGHERS WINDS AND SEAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RECENT SYNOPTIC REASONING AS LLVL PATTERN TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW...WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND LINES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND N SECTION TO INTERRUPT THIS FLOW...WHILE YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL PULSING AND MOVEMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SW U.S. NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NEXT COLD FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE TEXAS COAST MON MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1030 ISH MB HIGH ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL ATTM AND CONTINUES TO INDUCE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING 20 KT TRADES NOW CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TO S OF 15N...SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND BUOY 42058 NOW FLUCTUATING 7-9 FT. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALSO PRODUCING FRESH FLOW ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE PER 05Z RAPIDSCAT PASS. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA LOOKED TO BE JUST UNDER 30 KT. NO CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE OF REASONING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH PREFERRED AREAS PULSING TO 20-25 KT. PRES GRADIENT TO DIMINISH LATE THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK E OF 80W AND MODELS RESPOND BY CONFINING 20 KT TRADES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. THIS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SUFFICIENT RIDGING INTO GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN NOCTURNAL PULSING TO 25 KT EACH NIGHT...WITH WINDS GENERALLY VEERING MORE SE SAT THROUGH TUE. NO CHANGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHERE MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL N HALF AND FRESH S HALF. LOW LAT EARLY SEASON ELY WAVES MOVING WWD ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC AND S OF 10N ARE INFLUENCING CNVTN S HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AS WELL INCREASING WINDS WITH EACH PASSAGE. WW3 CONTINUES TO UNDERFORECAST ENE TRADEWIND SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS...AND GENERALLY RUNNING 1-2 FT LOW ACROSS THE TRADE WIND BELT E OF THE ISLANDS PER NUMEROUS ALTIMETER PASSES IN RECENT DAYS. SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE 7-9 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NLY SWELL FROM CENTRAL ATLC BOMB LATER THIS WEEK TO MOVE INTO N PORTIONS OF ATLC WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PEAK SUN-MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE PART OF THE AREA IS FINALLY DISSIPATING UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SINKING TUTT. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL ATLC TO CAPE CANAVERAL AND PRODUCING MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH FRESH E TO ESE TRADES ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS OCCURRING S OF 23-24N...CONTINUING THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 20 KT WINDS STILL DEPICTED ALONG N COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE PER 05Z RAPIDSCAT PASS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPING LOW OFF HATTERAS THAT WILL BOMB OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC THU-FRI. STILL PREFER ECMWF DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND HAVE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SINKING A BIT FARTHER S ACROSS NE PORTIONS THU-FRI...AND LOW DEVELOPING OFF COASTS OF CAROLINAS FRI-SAT FARTHER S AND SW THAN GFS. NARROW ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF FRONT ACROSS NE PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH BOMBING LOW MOVE INTO NE PORTIONS FRI NIGHT AND REACH NE CARIB ISLANDS SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN. ECWAVE IS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION SAT THROUGH SUN AND WILL INCORPORATE INTO FORECAST. PEAK N SWELL ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.