000 AGXX40 KNHC 140836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 436 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES AND SHIFT EWD INTO W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF...MAINLY E OF 94W ATTM. A 65-75 KT JET MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH BASE OF CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS NE MEXICO WITH SPEED DIVERGENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT EXITS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS ALSO EXPECTED TO AID IN KICKING OUT CUT OFF LOW TO THE NE AND SPREAD DYNAMICS FARTHER ENE ACROSS THE N GULF AND INTO N AND NW FLORIDA BY THU MORNING. ACTIVE CONVECTION THUS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF N HALF OF BASIN NEXT 48 HOURS WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FAVORING PERSISTENCE ACROSS N MEXICAN COASTAL ZONES. LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH MAX WINDS OCCURRING N OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THERMAL TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THERE AND SHIFTING NW. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT TO 5-6 FT ASSOCIATED WITH YUCATAN WIND MAX. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LLVL PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI BEFORE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE ACROSS NW ATLC AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND DEEP LAYERED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN PLAINS. THIS TO FRESHEN SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN FOR INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER IN LIFTING OUT THIS NEXT ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW ACROSS SW U.S. BEYOND DAY 4 AND HAVE THUS BLENDED MORE ECMWF BEYOND THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS ATLC RIDGING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL RIDGE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AGAINST IT...WHILE NW ATLC HIGH SHIFTS ENE AND IS MAINTAINING STRONG RIDGING W AND SW INTO SW N ATLC. THIS CONTINUES TO YIELD SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH RECENT 0236Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 20 KT TRADES EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO SRN HISPANIOLA AND BARAHONA PENINSULA. BUOY 420558 HOLDING TIGHT AT 9 FT AND SUGGESTS BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT TRADES UPSTREAM. ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWING GULF OF HONDURAS LIT UP WITH 25-30 KT MAX ALONG ABOUT 86W AND SEAS NOW REACHING 8 FT AS CONFIRMED BY 05Z ALTIMETER PASS...WHERE PEAK JUST UNDER 8 FT WAS OCCURRING BOTH N AND S OF THE BAY ISLANDS. INFLUENCE OF NW ATLC HIGH TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NE ATLC AND PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS STRONG HIGH BEHIND CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL RESTRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SW N ATLC AND CARIB AND INCREASE PULSING NOCTURNAL WINDS AT REGIONAL HOT SPOTS TO 25-30 KT AT NIGHT...NAMELY COLOMBIA AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING A LONG ENE FETCH OF 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS AND WILL MAINTAIN ENE TRADE WIND SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS 4-6 N PORTIONS...AND WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT S PORTIONS. LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL FROM CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING BOMB WILL INVADE NRN WATERS LATE SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT IN LINE WITH ECMWF LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE PORTIONS REMAINS ACTIVE AS DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH BROAD BASE OF N ATLC TROUGH CONTINUE TO ACT UPON PERSISTENT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG BOUNDARY. ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EWD INTO E ATLC EXTENDING WEAKLYWWD INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT IS SHIFTING GRADUALLY ENE ACROSS NW ATLC AND INFLUENCING MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS ATTM. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THIS MORNING...WITH FRESH TRADES OCCURRING S OF 23N AND ALONG N COAST OF CUBA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FL...WHILE MAX TO 25 KT ALONG NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA WAS DEPICTED BY RECENT ASCAT PASS. NO CHANGE TO PATTERN THROUGH 24 HRS BEFORE EVOLUTION OF CENTRAL ATLC BOMB BEGINS AND LOOKS TO PEAK THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN FASTEST AND FARTHER ENE THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WITH ASSOCIATED S/W WITHIN SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH...AND ECMWF SLOWEST...BUT MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z RUN...WITH GFS NOW JUST A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NE WITH DEVELOPING LOW. HAVE A 60-40 EC/GFS BLEND DAY 5-6 WHICH BRINGS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT A BIT FARTHER S INTO LOCAL WATERS...REACHING 27N65W BY 12Z FRI. STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT OT PRODUCE LARGE AREA 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SINKS S INTO THE AREA THU-FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS TO 30 KT. SEAS REACH 8-11 FT NE PORTIONS BY 12Z FRI WITH ASSOCIATED NLY SWELL MOVING INTO ATLC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PEAK ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.