000 AGXX40 KNHC 101847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 137 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE 1446 UTC ASCAT PASS ONLY PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THIS AREA. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGHING HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH ACTIVE TSTMS WILL SINK SLOWLY INTO NW COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED BY THERMAL TROUGH. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL... EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF...AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS PRE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A LOW PRES OVER TEXAS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WATERS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TUE. ALSO...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT IN THE NW GULF WITHIN 30-60 NM OF SHORE WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 3 NM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHIP CALL SIGN ZCDW9 MOVING WITHIN AROUND 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WAS REPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 13-14 FT THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY AND THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THEN...PULSING WINDS OF 25-3O KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 0600 AND 12OO UTC THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH 20-25 KT THEREAFTER. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-13 FT DURING THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG PULSES OF TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO 8 FT S OF HISPANIOLA AND OF 6-7 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH REPOSITIONS TO THE N...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT S HALF...AND 5-7 FT N HALF THROUGH TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS ANCHORED ON A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N67W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE NE WATERS AND NEAR THE HIGH PRES CENTER...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE N OF 22N...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS S OF 22N...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 70W AND 75...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-7 FT S OF 27N OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS N OF 27N. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO PRODUCE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DRAG EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... STALLING ALONG 30N BY MON MORNING WHILE IT DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT TROUGH. MAINLY FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH NEW HIGH MOVING OFF MID ATLC COAST TO PRODUCE MODERATE PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA W OF 70W MON- TUE. HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODEL INDICATES DIURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT OFF N AND NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING WWD AND WEAKENING EACH EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY SIMILAR DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO. NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH NW WATERS EARLY WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING THIS MORNING. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.