000 AGXX40 KNHC 100823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 423 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS PRESENTLY WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NRN GULF...AS A W EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30W. OBS AND RECENT SCAT PASSES SUGGEST 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS FL BIG BEND AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN...EXCEPT STRAITS OF FL WHERE ELY WINDS AROUND 20 KT PREVAIL...AND NE 15-20 OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN. EXCEPT FOR BIG BEND...SEAS 2-4 FT AND 5-6 FT STRAITS WHERE WIND IS AGAINST FL CURRENT ALONG 82W. WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING TEXAS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND REACH TEXAS-SW LA COASTAL ZONES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH S/W ENERGY EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ACTIVE CNVTN ALONG BOUNDARY AND MORE SCT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND OUT OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON FRONT STALLING ACROSS UPPER TEXAS-SW LA COASTAL WATERS BY SAT MORNING THEN WEAKENED REMNANTS BEGINNING TO DRIFT NWD SAT NIGHT- SUN. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING-NIGHT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED BY THERMAL TROUGH. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL... EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF...AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. ALSO...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT IN THE NW GULF WITHIN 30-60 NM OF SHORE WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 3 NM. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH TEXAS COAST TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS LATEST OBS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST FRESH TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 81-82W...AND STRONG TRADES CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH GALES FORECAST OFF OF COLOMBIA BRIEFLY THROUGH AROUND 12Z. THIS IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGE E TO W ALONG 30-31N. BUOY 42058 HOLDING AT 9 FT PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SUGGESTING BROAD 20-25 KT WIND FIELD UPSTREAM AND TO THE S. 0216Z ALTIMETER PASS WAS INVOF MAX SWH FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS AND INDICATED PEAK SEAS AROUND 10 FT AT 11.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. RECENT E CARIB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SAL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE W ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADEWINDS OFF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 12Z TO 25-3O KT AND TO AROUND 25 KT BY 18Z BEFORE PULSING AGAIN TO 25-30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH 20-25 KT THEREAFTER. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-13 FT DURING THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 82W WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG PULSES OF TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO 8 FT S OF HISPANIOLA AND OF 6-7 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-NE TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH REPOSITIONS TO THE N...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT S HALF...AND 5-7 FT N HALF THROUGH TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY W THIS MORNING NOW ALONG ABOUT 74W. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE SETTLING NE OF BAHAMAS WITH TUTT EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO EPAC. SCT SHALLOW CNVTN OCCURRING WITH INVERTED TROUGH NOW BEING SQUASHED W OF TROUGH AXIS IN SUBSIDENCE...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC PRODUCING SCT SHALLOW CNVTN. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE HOLDING ALONG 31-32N AND BEING NUDGED SLOWLY EWD BY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MID LATS. RECENT OBS AND SCAT PASSES SHOW RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N WITH FRESH E TRADES S OF 24N INTO BAHAMAS THEN E-SE INTO EXTREME SE FL AND THEN TROUGH THE STRAITS. SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT IN E TO NE WIND SWELL N OF 24N AND 6-7 FT OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS S OF 24N. ATLC RIDGE RIDGE TO BUILD WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DIMINISHING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO PRODUCE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON- EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DRAG EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...STALLING ALONG 30N BY MON MORNING WHILE IT DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT TROUGH. THIS WILL AGAIN NUDGE THE RIDGE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH NEW HIGH MOVING OFF MID ATLC COAST TO PRODUCE MODERATE PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA W OF 70W MON-TUE. HI RES GFS INDICATING DIURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT OFF N AND NW COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING WWD AND WEAKENING EACH EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY SIMILAR DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO. NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH NW WATERS EARLY WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.