000 AGXX40 KNHC 091755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL... EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF...AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. ALSO...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT IN THE NW GULF NEAR AND WITHIN 30-60 NM OF SHORE WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1 NM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. THE LATEST 0.25 DEGREE GFS MODEL SOLUTION ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER BRIEF GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE 1200 UTC FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC... THEN WINDS OF 25-3O KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH 20-25 KT THEREAFTER. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-13 FT DURING THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG PULSING WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO 8 FT S OF HISPANIOLA AND OF 6-7 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL PREVAIL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO 25N71W. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NW WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE N OF 22N...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS S OF 22N...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 70W AND 75...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN GENERAL...SEAS ARE 4-7 FT S OF 27N OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT ACROSS THE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS N OF 27N. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRI. THE WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FINALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA ON SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...STALLING ALONG 28N E OF 76W BY MON MORNING WHILE IT DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT TROUGH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.