000 AGXX40 KNHC 061754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 PM EDT MON APR 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONTAL REMNANTS NOW ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS OF N GULF STATES AND DRIFTING NWD AS MODERATE RETURN FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALL BUT NE PORTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN ATTM...HIGHEST W AND NW PORTIONS. RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS AND NEXT S/W LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL LIFT ACROSS RIDGE WITH MOST DYNAMICS REMAINING N OF ALL BUT COASTAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH WED...WITH WIND OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...AND SEAS W HALF BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH OF NEXT LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING WITH ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS INVOF OF N AND W COAST OF PENINSULA. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WED. DEEP LAYERED LOW TO MOVE THROUGH PLAINS STATES LATE WED AND THU AND ACT TO ENHANCE PRES GRADIENT WITH FRESHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS W HALF...WHERE SE TO S FLOW 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS AROUND 20 KT AND POSSIBLE SEAS TO 7 FT. LOW TO LIFT INTO GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THU WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING TEXAS COAST BY FRI MORNING...WITH MODERATE S TO SE FLOW ENTIRE BASIN THU-FRI. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS ATLC RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 35N SHIFTING SLOWLY ENE AND MAINTAINING MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OCCURRING S CENTRAL SECTIONS OFF OF COLOMBIA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED AREA OF SOLID 30 KT WINDS AT 02Z AND COULD HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR GALE FORCE 06-12Z. LATEST SCAT PASSES HIT EITHER SIDE OF THIS AREA SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE IN PAST 12 HOURS...AND BUOY 42058 REMAINS ENE NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 6 FT. NO CHANGE IN RECENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. ATLC RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THU WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING WWD ACROSS MID LATS OF SW N ATLC AND UNDERNEATH RIDGE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA STILL FORECAST TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT BUT AM JUST NOW CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE GALES AGAIN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WILL ISSUE WITH NEXT FCST PACKAGE. MODERATE E TO ENE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EXCEPT FOR ZONE OF FRESH TRADES ROUGHLY 17-21N WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER AT 7-8 FT IN NE TRADE WIND SWELL. SEVERAL PULSES OF SAL EXITING W AFRICA THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAVE FINALLY REACHED THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY PER 12Z BARBADOS SOUNDING AND GOES-R PRODUCTS AND WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY WWD NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COMBINE WITH VERY STABLE UPPER CONDITIONS TO VERY FAIR AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN. GREAT SAILING WX! ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAKENING FRONT ALONG 29-30N ATTM EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH W PORTIONS BEGINNING TO DRIFT N OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SELY LLVL FLOW NW PORTIONS. NE WIND SWELL NOW AFFECTING MUCH OF NW PORTIONS N OF 27N W OF 70W WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT...DECREASING TO 4-5 FT FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS TRANSITIONED TO SHEARLINE WITH 20 KT OCCURRING TO N...WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 FT NEXT 18-24 HRS. SEAS GENERALLY 5-6 FT IN MIXED SWELL S OF 27N AND E OF BAHAMAS. UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OF 60W CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT LLVL TROUGH NOW ALONG 62-63W THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W NEXT 72 HRS...UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGE ALONG 35-36N. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THIS MOTION AFTER 48 HRS...AS WELL AS WITH S/W AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIDING OVER RIDGE AT 72 HRS...AND AM THUS USING MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED 4-7 FT WITH THE HIGHEST TRADEWINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED S OF 22N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECT WILL COME INTO PLAY ALONG N COASTAL WATERS OF GREATER ANTILLES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.