000 AGXX40 KNHC 051910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOW APPEARS TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY N ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 95W...STRETCHING FROM A BIT N OF TAMPA BAY TO 26.5N90W THEN WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WHICH THEN WRAPS SW INTO BROAD LOW ACROSS S TEXAS. FRESH WINDS N OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NE PORTIONS HAD DIMINISHED THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND RECENT 1450Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED E TO ESE WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS BIG BEND REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE ENE TO ESE WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH PEAK SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS BIG BEND NOW SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT...WHILE BUOY 42055 HOLDING AT 4 FT ACROSS THE SW. FRONT BECOMING ILL DEFINED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS EVENING AS W PORTIONS LIFTS NNW AND INLAND...AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED NW PORTIONS AND PREVAILS THROUGH WED. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE FOLLOWED BY LARGER DEEPER SYSTEM LATE WED. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THESE LOWS...THERE IS NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NW GULF BY THU WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF W HALF OF GULF WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT FETCH LENGTH AND SEAS ACROSS NW PORTIONS BUILDING 5-7 FT BY THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E INTO CENTRAL ATLC OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING S TO SE ACROSS THE LOCAL SW N ATLC TODAY. NEW HIGH NOW EMERGING OFF MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND WILL SHIFT ENE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ACROSS NW ATLC. OVERNIGHT AND NOW MORNING SCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS ONLY TO 25 KT OFF OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND A SOMEWHAT LOOSE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ELSEWHERE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 20 KT S OF BARAHONA PENINSULA. SEAS RANGE 3 TO 6 FT IN MOST AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLC COASTAL WATERS. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE EASTWARD BUILDING N OF THE AREA ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WIND PULSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF HISPANIOLA. MODELS INDICATE THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST... ~1006 MB AND LESS AND CONTRIBUTES TO GRADIENT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO REACH 30 KT OR HIGHER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE STILL DOES NOT INDICATE ANY PROBABILITIES FOR GALE WARNING OFF COLOMBIA...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS TO GALE WARNING FORCE OFF COLOMBIA EARLY TUE AND WED MORNING AND HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER ON THIS IN LATEST HSF. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS A 1030 MB HIGH IS SHIFTING E OFF THE MID ATLC COAST ATTM AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT GENTLY S TO SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS...WHERE NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL AREA...AND ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY N OF FRONT YIELDING NE TO E WINDS PE RECENT SCAT PASSES. MODESTLY LONG FETCH N OF FRONT IS BUILDING SEAS 8-10 FT N OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS ENE WIND SWELL IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO N AND CENTRAL FL COASTAL WATERS...WHERE BUOY 41009 IS NOW 7 FT AT8-9 SECS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING ALONG ABOUT 29N. WINDS N OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON BUT ASSOCIATED WIND SWELL WILL NOT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE UNTIL MON AFTERNOON. FARTHER SE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS SE PORTIONS...IN MIXED NE SWELL E OF SFC TROUGH CARVED BY UPPER LOW SHIFTING E OF 60W ATTM. THESE WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE MWW3...NWPS AND ECWAVE GUIDANCE.AND WE CONTINUE TO HAND EDIT TO BRING IN LINE. WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRES N OF FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DAMPEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ONLY AREA OF STRONG WINDS OR SEAS TO 8 FT WILL BE NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WINDS PULSING TO 20 TO 25 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.