000 AGXX40 KNHC 050803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 26N91W WHERE IS STATIONARY INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. BUOYS OVER THE FAR NE GULF INDICATE WINDS ARE VEERING MORE NE AND INCREASING TO 15 KT AS THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ARE OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND OFF NW CUBA DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TREND IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WED. ALTHOUGHTHERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES...THERE IS NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE NW GULF BY THU WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW 1005 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS WEAKENED TEMPORARILY ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT LOOSE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E BREEZES IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND LIKELY 20 TO 25 KT OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS RANGE 4 TO 6 FT IN MOST AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING N OF THE AREA ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WIND PULSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF HISPANIOLA. VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THE LOWER THAN USUAL PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST...ALLOWING WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO REACH 30 KT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SO FAR DOES NOT INDICATE ANY PROBABILITIES FOR GALE OFF COLOMBIA...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA TUE NIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST EVENING INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 FT DOWN WIND OF THE HIGHER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. THIS WAS 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE BOTH MWW3 AND ECWAVE GUIDANCE BUT WAS DEPICTED WELL IN TAFB NWPS OUTPUT...WHICH WAS USED TO POPULATE THE OFFICIAL DATABASE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS WITH MANUAL EDITS. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N72W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE LIKELY N OF THE FRONT INTO THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE TODAY ALONG 28N...BUT NOT BEFORE THE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF 28N WITH 8 TO 10 FT. THERE WAS SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT THAT HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT S OF 22N E OF 70W...IN AN AREA IMPACTED BY FRESH NE SWELL GENERATED FROM STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE MWW3...NWPS AND ECWAVE GUIDANCE. AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR ALONG 58W N OF 25N...MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DAMPEN OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ONLY AREA OF STRONG WINDS OR SEAS TO 8 FT WILL BE NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WINDS PULSING TO 20 TO 25 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.