000 AGXX40 KNHC 040802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SE TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RAISING DEW POINTS...ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF AS NOTED IN VARIOUS REPORTS FROM OIL PLATFORMS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL LIFT LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE TODAY...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND FRESH NE WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE SUN AS RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ONLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE STANDARDLATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TROUGHING OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN STARTING LATE MON. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A MODERATELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA PERSISTS AND IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 10 FT OFF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT BY SAT NIGHT. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM LATE TODAY TO LATE SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF HISPANIOLA STARTING SUN TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA REMAINING DEEPER THAN AVERAGE...SUPPORTING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING A LARGE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N E OF 70W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT E THIS MORNING AS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THIS NEW FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY...STALL ALONG 28N/29N BY LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD...ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY WITH MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PREVAILING N OF 22N THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE STARTING LATE MONDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.