000 AGXX40 KNHC 271657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1257 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR FIRST 12 HOURS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION PRECEDES THE FRONT AND IS DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE POST-FRONTAL GALE WARNING VERIFIED BY OBS FROM SACV4 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL ABRUPTLY END THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING TONIGHT WITH N-NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE GULF WATERS AT SUNRISE ON SAT. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 26N ON SUN...EXCEPT NE-E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN PASSAGE. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 20-25 KT NE FLOW ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT ENE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ENE PASSING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ON SAT NIGHT...LEAVING A RIDGE SW TO NE MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN WITH THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA BAY ON MON. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT W AND MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO LA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON TO 5-10 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PASSAGE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN..AND NOW EXPECT THIS FRONT TO REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT EVENING...THEN LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE NICARAGUA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SUN EVENING. STILL EXPECT A SWATCH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA ON MON MORNING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX. FURTHER TO THE S EXPECT THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...TO SUPPORT STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING A LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO THE FL STRAITS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. FRESH EASTERLIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE. S-SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 30N WITH SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT THIS EVENING N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON SAT EVENING...FROM 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN MORNING...FROM 31N58W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN EVENING...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 25N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON MON EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WED. A W TO E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MON...THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N ON TUE. EXPECT A SW-W 15-25 KT WIND SHIFT TO DEVELOP N OF 29N ON MON NIGHT ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT TO WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N56W TO 29N65W...THEN STALL ALONG 27N TO THE FL COAST ON TUE. AN E-W RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 29N N OF THE FRONTAL REMNANTS MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.