000 AGXX40 KNHC 260704 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 304 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MWW3 WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT WINDS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER IT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT THAT FIRST PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAN MOST OF THE MODELS AND IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO CARRY A 40 KT GALE ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ NEAR TAMPICO TONIGHT AND THEN A 45 KT GALE IN THE FAR SW GULF BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND ENDING AFTER 18Z. THE ECMWF AND NAM CARRY A MINIMAL GALE OVER THE SW GULF FRI AFTERNOON...BUT NEITHER ARE AS STRONG AS THE GFS NEAR TAMPICO. THE SREF AND GEFS SHOW NO CHANCE OF GALES NEAR TAMPICO...BUT THE PEAK AT A 75 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE SW GULF FRI AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE GFS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT WINDS WERE CAPPED AT 30 KT NEAR TAMPICO TONIGHT AND AT 40 KT IN THE SW GULF FRI AS A NOD TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE. FOR WAVES...THE TAFB NWPS CONTINUES TO BE LOWER WITH THE SEAS IN THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE MWW3. SEAS SHOULD RAMP UP MORE QUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG WIND THAT IS FORECAST. THE MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE FORECAST AS A RESULT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH THE EC WAVE ADDED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC IS ALLOWING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TO EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHRINK AGAIN LATE FRI AS A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOVES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH E. WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE TO AT LEAST A FRESH BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE N STRENGTHENS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE FRI WHEN THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOVES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH E AND DIMINISHES THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS WAS USED TO POPULATE THIS AREA AS IT HAS THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION AND GENERALLY DOES BEST IN THIS AREA AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION TO THE N. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS JUST A HAIR STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION OUTPUT. BY MON...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS IDEA WITH THE UKMET. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE WINDS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE GFS CARRIES A FRESH BREEZE LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE TAFB NWPS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BUT IS AROUND 2 FT LOWER WITH THE NE SWELL PUSHING INTO THE AREA FRI. THE EC WAVE GENERALLY HANDLES SWELL BETTER THAN THE MWW3 AND NWPS. THE EC WAVE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE PATCH OF 20-25 KT SE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NE FL. MANUALLY ADJUSTED THIS AREA INTO THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CARRYING THE FRONT SE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS ACROSS N WATERS...SHOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY GALE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 00Z SAT. THE SREFAND GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF THIS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET CAP WINDS AT 30 KT. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND DROPS THE CHANCE OF GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. FOR SEAS...THE NWPS HAS FULLY SPUN UP SWELL IN THE ATLC. A BLEND OF ITS FORECAST AND THE EC WAVE WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO MATCH THE WIND PREFERENCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.