000 AGXX40 KNHC 241637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1237 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM SW FL TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY BKN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHICH WILL ARE DENOTED IN THE INITIAL WEATHER GRIDS. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW WATERS. GENERALLY 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS NW OF THE FRONT AND SW 5 KT CONDITIONS OBSERVED SE OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...THEN SHIFT SE TO JUST W OF TAMPA BAY ON WED EVENING. NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE... AND WILL PROPAGATE W EARLY WED MORNING...DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED MORNING. WED NIGHTS EVENT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON WED ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL AND NW GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU MORNING...WITH THE SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW THEN SHIFTING E ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU EVENING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST...THEN SPREADING S ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST EARLY THU NIGHT REACHING THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI MORNING. GUIDANCE VARIES A LITTLE BUT EXPECT MAXIMUM 30 KT NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRI NIGHT. A POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE SE TX COAST ON SAT AFTERNOON WITH N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE TRADES INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EXPECT THIS NOCTURNAL INCREASE TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THU NIGHT. FURTHER TO THE S EXPECT THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...TO SUPPORT STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90-150 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WED AND THU NIGHT EVENTS WILL MAX BRIEFLY AT 30 KT. FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED-THU...THEN SPREAD E ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON THU. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA ON SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FAR EASTERN ATLC WATERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO SE FL WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 24N55W TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E TONIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 27N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS... THEN WASHES OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS ON THU-FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED S OF THE FRONT...AND AROUND THE RIDGE...WILL GRADUALLY BECOME E-SE 10-15 KT ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT ALONG 26N E OF 70W ON WED EVENING....WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING SE ON THU AND PASSING E OF 55W LATE FRI. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK TO THE SW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ON THU-FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS ON FRI. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT ON FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT EVENING WITH GRADIENT THEN SUPPORTING NW-N 15-20 KT WIND W OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.