000
AGXX40 KNHC 231859
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...UNTIL AFTER A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF LATE THU. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK
UP STARTING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NW CORNER OF THE
AREA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND CENTRAL...AND NE SECTIONS
PROGRESSIVELY WITH TIME. THE COMPARATIVELY FASTEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PLUS MANUAL
EDITS IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW   
COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...DIMINISHING
TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING. ON WED NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE ON
BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC AND ALLOW A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE TO EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
STRETCH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE N STRENGTHENS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH FRI NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
DIMINISHES THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS WAS USED
TO POPULATE THIS AREA AS IT HAS THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION AND
GENERALLY DOES BEST IN THIS AREA AND IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION TO THE N. THE NWPS WAS PRIMARILY RELIED ON FOR
SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE 1-2 FT TOO LOW
WITH SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. THE EC
WAVE WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR THE LOW
VALUES SEEN IN THE NWPS COMPARED TO BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
ALTIMETER PASSES INITIALLY.

  
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PLUS MANUAL
EDITS IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST ALTIMETER DATA...ROUGHLY
FROM 50W EASTWARD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVY FRONT THAT IS IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MON NIGHT. THOSE WIND CONDITIONS ARE GOING
TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST...IN THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST. THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH SWELLS...SUBSIDE
GRADUALLY WITH TIME. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.