000 AGXX40 KNHC 220606 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING FROM TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH MON. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS WINDS REACHING 20 KT UNTIL 06Z TUE WHEN A WEAK...FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NE GULF AND INVIGORATES A SURFACE BOUNDARY THERE. THE GFS SHOWS 20 KT NE WINDS TUE MORNING MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH MODELS SHOW SE RETURN FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY WED MORNING AND CARRY A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT BUT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET TIMING FOR A FORECAST SO FAR OUT. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. FOR WAVES...THE MWW3 SOLUTION WAS ADDED TO THE MIX WITH THE TAFB NWPS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLEND USED FOR WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE 12Z EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING. ON WED NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC AND ALLOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TO EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S OF HISPANIOLA AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE N STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z GFS WAS USED TO POPULATE THIS AREA AS IT HAS THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION AND GENERALLY DOES BEST IN THIS AREA AND IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED SOLUTION TO THE N. THE NWPS WAS PRIMARILY RELIED ON FOR SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BUT IT APPEARS 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS. THE EC WAVE WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR THE LOW VALUES SEEN IN THE NWPS COMPARED TO BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASSES INITIALLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: THE 12Z ECMWF WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE TAFB NWPS AND EC WAVE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF SETS UP THE E-W BOUNDARY OVER N WATERS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN THE GFS...ALLOWING THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY TO DIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA MORE THAN THE GFS. THE OVERALL TREND THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THE GFS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE FLATTER ECMWF SOLUTION HERE. ON TUE NIGHT...THE GFS DEVELOPS DEEPER TROUGHING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER N AS A RESULT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET AGREE ON CARRYING THE NEXT FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU MORNING FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE SLIGHTLY BY THIS POINT...BUT OVERALL...THE GFS STILL SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP TO THE ECMWF IN THE SW N ATLC. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. THE 12Z EC WAVE AND LATEST TAFB NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. THE EC WAVE CONTINUES TO PERFORM BETTER COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS WITH THE NORTHERLY SWELL OVER THE ATLC...AS IT GENERALLY DOES...VERSUS THE NWPS. THE NWPS WAS WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE BAHAMAS WHERE ITS HIGH RESOLUTION BATHYMETRY IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO THE FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.