000 AGXX40 KNHC 201834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES PERSISTS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED EAST TO WEST FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BUT APPEAR TO BE ERODING ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR SHORE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE UKMET STILL FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE. OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. THIS SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT MOVING ENTERING THE NW GULF EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OR WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE SE GULF MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE FAR SE GULF OR STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS ITS SUPPORT LIFTS OUT AND THE AIRMASS N OF THE FRONT MODIFIES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE 00Z EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS FAVORED FOR THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION 12Z GFS WAS USED FOR THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY SWELL IS APPROACHING THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEAS TO 10 FT ARE BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41044 NEAR 21.5N 58.5W. THIS APPROXIMATELY 3 FT ABOVE THE MWW3 GUIDANCE. THE EC WAVE IS HANDLING THE NORTHERLY SWELL A LITTLE BETTER...CONTINUING A PATTERN NOTICED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHERLY SWELL TO AT LEAST 6 FT WILL PUSH THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. ECWAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 28N W OF 73W IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING INTO NE FLORIDA WILL REACH EASTWARD ALONG 30N THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO THESE EVENTS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS BEHIND THE OTHER MODELS DEVELOPING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHING ALONG 30N FROM THE WEST...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING A BETTER COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND FASTER UKMET AS WELL AS MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWING A PAIR OF LOW PRES CENTERS MOVING ACROSS S GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG ROUGHLY 30N TOWARD BERMUDA. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N TUE AND WED. NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA WITH BUOYS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS REPORTING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS. THIS IS A LITTLE ABOVE MWW3 GUIDANCE...AND THE EC WAVE IS FAVORED. SWELL 8 FT OR GREATER WILL MOVE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. SEAS TO 14 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.